Brussels/Vilnius, December 2, 2025 – European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen issued a stark warning on Monday about deteriorating security along the Lithuania-Belarus border, attributing a surge in smuggling balloon incursions to a deliberate “hybrid attack” orchestrated by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s regime. In a post on the social media platform X, von der Leyen announced that the European Union is preparing additional sanctions to counter what she described as an unacceptable provocation against a member state. This development comes just weeks after Lithuania reopened its border crossings with Belarus following a contentious closure prompted by repeated airspace violations, highlighting the fragile state of relations between the EU’s eastern flank and its authoritarian neighbor.
Von der Leyen’s statement followed a phone call with Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda, during which she reaffirmed the bloc’s “full solidarity” with Vilnius. “The situation at the border with Belarus is worsening, with the growing incursions of smuggling balloons into Lithuania’s airspace,” she wrote. “Such hybrid attack by the Lukashenka regime is completely unacceptable. We are preparing further measures under our sanctions regime.” The post quickly gained widespread attention, underscoring the EU’s growing frustration with Minsk’s tactics, which Lithuanian officials have likened to broader destabilization efforts reminiscent of Russia’s hybrid warfare strategies.
The balloon incidents, involving helium-filled devices laden with contraband cigarettes, have plagued Lithuanian airspace since early October, forcing temporary shutdowns at Vilnius International Airport and other facilities. Authorities in Vilnius report that these low-flying objects, often no larger than weather balloons, originate from Belarusian territory and are deployed by organized smuggling networks. Each incursion triggers airspace restrictions, scrambling air traffic control and leading to flight cancellations, diversions, and delays that disrupt thousands of passengers. On November 30 alone, Vilnius Airport suspended operations after spotting unidentified balloon-like objects, affecting over 7,400 travelers in a single night, with 31 flights canceled and 10 diverted.
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys accused Belarus of “deliberately targeting” the airport to maximize disruption. “These are not random acts by rogue smugglers; they are state-tolerated provocations aimed at testing our resilience,” Budrys stated. He has been vocal in calling for escalated EU measures, including stricter sanctions on Belarusian exports like nitrogen fertilizers and aviation services, as well as tariffs on goods linked to Russian interests.
The crisis traces its roots to mid-October, when a wave of balloon sightings prompted Lithuania’s government to take drastic action. On October 27, Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė announced the indefinite closure of the two main border crossings – Medininkai and Šalčininkai – citing “constant violations” of national airspace. The 680-kilometer border was shut to most traffic, exempting only diplomats, EU/NATO citizens exiting Belarus, and humanitarian visa holders. Šimonytė authorized the Lithuanian armed forces to shoot down offending balloons if necessary, framing the response as a “clear signal” against hybrid threats.
Belarus retaliated swiftly, barring Lithuanian-registered trucks from leaving its territory and stranding hundreds of vehicles. Minsk’s Foreign Ministry labeled the closure a “provocation” and insisted that the balloons were likely launched by smugglers on Lithuanian soil. President Lukashenko dismissed the accusations as a “crazy scam” orchestrated by the West to isolate Belarus and Russia.
Despite the tensions, Lithuania opted to reopen the border earlier than planned on November 20, citing a decline in incidents. The decision allowed the resumption of operations at Medininkai and Šalčininkai, easing pressure on logistics firms and enabling the return of most detained trucks after bilateral talks. However, some vehicles remain withheld by Belarusian authorities.
The smuggling balloons are rudimentary yet effective: many carry up to 1,000 cartons of cheap Belarusian cigarettes wrapped in waterproof tape and suspended beneath the balloons. The trade exploits price disparities between duty-free Belarusian tobacco and EU-regulated markets, generating millions in illicit revenue annually. While smugglers operate semi-independently, Vilnius insists the Lukashenko regime at minimum turns a blind eye, if not actively facilitates, the operations as leverage against Western sanctions imposed since Belarus’s 2020 election crackdown and its role in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, based in Vilnius, has called the balloons “yet another sign that the regime is using cigarette smuggling as a tool of hybrid aggression against Europe.” The EU has responded decisively: on Monday, the bloc summoned Belarus’s representative in Brussels, and High Representative Kaja Kallas committed to blocking any sanctions relief for Minsk while fast-tracking Lithuania’s proposals. Analysts anticipate new measures could include bans on Belarusian potash exports and restrictions on third-country transshipments evading current sanctions.
The broader geopolitical context amplifies the stakes. Lithuania, a NATO frontline state, views the incidents as part of a pattern that includes the 2021 migrant crisis orchestrated by Belarus. With Russia’s war in Ukraine ongoing, Vilnius fears these provocations could escalate. Economically, the border closure disrupted hundreds of millions of euros in monthly trade and cost airlines millions in losses, while authorities seized tens of thousands of cigarette cartons in November alone.
As winter sets in along the frontier, von der Leyen’s pledge signals a hardening EU stance. “Europe stands united against destabilization,” she reiterated. For Lithuania, the balloons represent not just a smuggling nuisance but a litmus test for EU resolve. Without decisive action, officials warn, the regime will interpret leniency as weakness.
