Israeli President Isaac Herzog Faces Three Thorny Scenarios in Responding to Netanyahu's Pardon Request

 

JERUSALEM – Israeli President Isaac Herzog is navigating a political minefield as he weighs Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's unprecedented request for a pardon in his long-standing corruption trial. Submitted formally on November 30, 2025, the 111-page petition argues that ending the proceedings would serve the "public interest" by allowing Netanyahu to focus on governance amid Israel's deepening divisions. Yet, with no admission of guilt from Netanyahu and mounting pressure from both domestic opponents and international allies, Herzog's decision—expected within weeks or months—promises to deepen the nation’s fractures, no matter the outcome.

Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving leader, has consistently denied the charges of bribery, fraud, and breach of trust brought against him since his 2019 indictment. The trial, which began in May 2020, has lasted over five years, marked by repeated delays—many requested by Netanyahu himself—and has become a central fault line in Israeli politics. In his letter to Herzog, Netanyahu described the trial as a "focal point of fierce controversy" but insisted that national unity now outweighs his personal desire to clear his name in court. "The public interest dictates otherwise," he wrote, presenting the pardon as essential for healing societal rifts worsened by years of judicial battles and the ongoing war in Gaza.

The timing is highly strategic. Israel has effectively entered an election year, with the next legislative vote scheduled for October 27, 2026, unless the current coalition collapses earlier. Recent polls show Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc trailing, with public exhaustion over the war, economic strain, and lingering scandals eroding his support. Political analysts note that the pardon request conveniently shifts media and public attention away from another explosive issue: the contentious bill granting widespread military draft exemptions to ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) men—a measure that has sparked fury among secular and national-religious Israelis bearing the brunt of military service.

The Three Scenarios Facing President Herzog

Under Israeli law, the president has broad authority to grant pardons, even before a conviction, if it is deemed in the national interest. However, tradition and legal precedent strongly favor an admission of guilt and expressions of remorse—neither of which Netanyahu has offered.

• Outright Rejection : The simplest and fastest option for Herzog would be to deny the request, citing the absence of remorse and the principle that sitting prime ministers under indictment should not receive special immunity. This path would be celebrated by the opposition—led by figures such as Yair Lapid, Benny Gantz, and Avigdor Lieberman—who have demanded that any pardon be contingent on Netanyahu admitting guilt and retiring from politics. However, rejection would enrage Likud and its coalition partners, potentially triggering government collapse and heightened domestic tension.
• Unconditional Approval : Granting the pardon without conditions would be a major victory for Netanyahu and his allies, including far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. It would also aligns with the public urging of U.S. President Donald Trump, who in mid-November 2025 sent a personal letter to Herzog calling for a “full and complete pardon” and describing the trial as politically motivated “lawfare.” Yet this scenario would almost certainly ignite massive protests—potentially larger than those that paralyzed the country during the 2023 judicial overhaul crisis—and further erode public trust in state institutions.
• Conditional Pardon – A Middle Path?The most discussed possibility in Israeli media is a compromise: Herzog could approve a pardon tied to significant concessions. Possible conditions include:
• Netanyahu agreeing to step down from the premiership (temporarily or permanently),
• Permanent withdrawal of the judicial overhaul legislation,
• Establishment of a state commission of inquiry into the security and intelligence failures of October 7, 2023,
• Dropping controversial media regulation bills favored by the coalition.
• Reports from both the public broadcaster KAN and centrist outlets suggest Herzog’s office is seriously exploring this route, believing that an unconditional pardon is politically unsustainable while a flat rejection could destabilize the country further. However, sources close to Netanyahu have repeatedly stated that retirement from political life is “not on the table,” and pro-Netanyahu Channel 14 has claimed the president may be willing to accept minor rephrasing of the request that avoids an explicit admission of guilt.
• The Corruption Cases in Detail :The ongoing trial comprises three main cases:
• Case 1000 (“The Gifts Affair”): Netanyahu and his wife Sara are accused of accepting over $200,000 in cigars, champagne, jewelry, and other luxury items from billionaire Arnon Milchan and Australian tycoon James Packer in exchange for political and personal favors.
• Case 2000 (“The Netanyahu–Mozes Affair”): Secret recordings captured Netanyahu discussing legislation to damage the circulation of rival newspaper Israel Hayom in return for more favorable coverage from Yedioth Ahronoth publisher Arnon Mozes.
• Case 4000 (“The Bezeq–Walla Affair”): Considered the most serious, this case alleges that Netanyahu, while serving as communications minister, granted hundreds of millions of dollars in regulatory benefits to telecom giant Bezeq in exchange for positive coverage on its affiliated news site Walla. Investigators documented hundreds of instances in which Walla editors were instructed to promote Netanyahu and attack his rivals.

Netanyahu continues to describe all charges as a politically orchestrated “witch hunt” by a hostile judiciary and media.

The Shadow of ICC Arrest Warrants

Any decision on the domestic pardon is further complicated by the International Criminal Court’s November 2024 arrest warrants against Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity committed during the Gaza war. The warrants—covering the period from October 8, 2023, to at least through May 20, 2024—accuse the two leaders of using starvation as a method of warfare and intentionally targeting civilians. Israel rejects the ICC’s jurisdiction, but the warrants restrict Netanyahu’s international travel and intensify calls for accountability.

Meanwhile, the humanitarian toll in Gaza remains staggering. According to the Palestinian health authorities, more than 70,000 people—predominantly women and children—have been killed since October 2023, with thousands more believed buried under rubble. Humanitarian organizations warn of famine and disease outbreaks due to severe restrictions on aid.

A Nation on Edge

As Herzog deliberates, protests have erupted outside his official residence in Jerusalem, with demonstrators waving signs reading “No Pardon for Corruption” and “Israel Is Not a Banana Republic.” Opposition leaders warn that clemency without contrition would deal a fatal blow to the rule of law. Netanyahu’s supporters, in contrast, frame the trial as an attempted coup by unelected elites.

Whatever path President Herzog ultimately chooses—rejection, approval, or a conditional middle ground—few believe he can emerge unscathed or that the decision will heal Israel’s bitterly divided society. With elections looming and the wounds of October 7, 2023, still raw, the pardon saga has become the latest chapter in a protracted national crisis over governance, accountability, and the future direction of the Jewish state.