TOKYO, December 15, 2025 – Japan continues to reinforce its defense posture in line with its 2022 National Security Strategy, emphasizing the indispensable role of the Japan-U.S. alliance while addressing escalating security challenges posed by China's military expansion, North Korea's nuclear and missile advancements, and Russia's deepening strategic coordination with Beijing and Pyongyang.
A Japanese Foreign Ministry official, in a briefing to international media including Anadolu Agency, highlighted that geopolitical shifts and global uncertainties have compelled Tokyo to enhance Indo-Pacific cooperation and bolster its own defense capabilities. The 2022 strategy, approved by the Cabinet on December 16, 2022, marked a significant shift, committing Japan to increase defense spending to approximately 2% of GDP by fiscal year 2027 and acquire counterstrike capabilities.
The official described the current security environment as the "most severe and complex since the end of World War II," echoing language from Japan's Defense White Paper and official statements. This assessment stems from two primary concerns: the growing military and non-military influence of neighboring countries attempting to unilaterally change the status quo in areas like the East and South China Seas, and domestic issues such as Japan's declining birth rate, which poses long-term implications for national manpower and security sustainability.
China's Opaque Military Buildup Raises Alarms
China's rapid military modernization, including nuclear and missile capabilities, lacks transparency and has intensified efforts to alter the status quo in maritime domains, according to the official. Beijing's activities in the East and South China Seas have drawn repeated international warnings. Japan's 2022 National Security Strategy explicitly identifies China's direction and military actions as a "serious concern" for regional stability.
Recent developments in 2025 have amplified these worries. Japan's Defense White Paper released in July 2025 noted that China, Russia, and North Korea represent the biggest security challenge since World War II, with deepening military ties among them heightening uncertainty in the Indo-Pacific. Joint China-Russia naval exercises, such as "Joint Sea-2025" held in the Sea of Japan, underscore this coordination, involving anti-submarine warfare, air defense, and live-fire drills.
North Korea's Persistent Missile Threat
North Korea's ballistic missile launches and nuclear program continue to pose an "unprecedented" threat. While the official noted a high frequency of launches in recent years, activities in 2025 included tests of short-range ballistic and cruise missiles, often timed around international events. Pyongyang's cooperation with Russia, including potential technology transfers amid the Ukraine conflict, further complicates the security landscape.
Russia's Role in Regional Instability
Russia's willingness to use military force, threats of nuclear employment, and enhanced coordination with China—evidenced by joint drills and patrols—add to Japan's concerns. The official pointed to Russia's war in Ukraine providing North Korea with additional leverage. In 2025, joint Russia-China activities, including patrols in the Asia-Pacific following exercises, signal a tightening alignment sometimes referred to as "CRINK" (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea) cooperation.
Japan's Dual-Pillar Security Approach
Japan's policy rests on promoting a "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" (FOIP) and the indispensable Japan-U.S. alliance. FOIP, first proposed in 2016 and updated in 2023, aims to ensure rules-based order, connectivity, and prosperity across the region. Tokyo deepens ties with like-minded partners through frameworks like the Quad (Japan, U.S., Australia, India).
The U.S.-Japan alliance remains the cornerstone, with ongoing enhancements to command and control, joint exercises, and deterrence. Recent reaffirmations, including discussions on alliance upgrades amid China's assertiveness, underscore its vitality.
In response to these multilayered challenges, Japan is enhancing Self-Defense Forces capabilities, including counterstrike options and integrated deterrence. The official stressed a comprehensive approach, combining diplomacy, defense reinforcement, and partnerships.
As global power dynamics shift—with the rising influence of the Global South and declining relative economic weight of G7 nations—Japan views European and Indo-Pacific security as inseparable. Lessons from Ukraine reinforce the need for robust deterrence to prevent similar contingencies in East Asia.
This posture reflects Tokyo's commitment to a rules-based order, proactive peace contributions, and safeguarding national sovereignty amid an era of profound uncertainty.
