Vienna, Austria – December 1, 2025 – The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies in the OPEC+ coalition have agreed to extend current crude oil production quotas for all participating countries through December 31, 2026. The decision, reached during the 40th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting held virtually on November 30, 2025, maintains Nigeria’s oil production quota at 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) and rolls over existing output levels for all members of the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC).
This extension reflects OPEC+’s ongoing strategy to ensure long-term stability in the global oil market amid persistent uncertainties, including slowing demand growth, rising non-OPEC supply, and geopolitical tensions.
The Declaration of Cooperation, originally signed in December 2016 between OPEC and ten non-OPEC oil-producing countries led by Russia, has been the cornerstone of coordinated production management for nearly a decade. It has enabled the group to implement deep supply cuts during periods of oversupply—most notably in 2020 during the COVID-19 demand collapse—and to gradually restore output as markets recovered.
Key outcomes from the latest ministerial meeting include:
- Reaffirmation of current production levels: The overall crude oil production baseline agreed at the 38th Ministerial Meeting remains unchanged until the end of 2026, providing predictability for both producers and consumers.
- Strengthened monitoring: The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) will continue to meet every two months to assess global oil market conditions, production adherence, and inventory levels. The committee uses independent sources to verify output data and can recommend corrective actions if needed.
- Full conformity and compensation: Participating countries reiterated the critical importance of strict adherence to agreed quotas. Any overproduction must be compensated through future reductions, with an extended compensation period now running through June 2026.
Looking ahead to 2027, OPEC+ approved a new assessment mechanism developed by the OPEC Secretariat to evaluate each member’s Maximum Sustainable Production Capacity (MSC). This technical process, set to begin in early 2026, will determine fair and realistic reference production levels for the following year, replacing the often-contentious negotiations of the past. The new framework is expected to reduce disputes over quota allocations, particularly for countries that have significantly expanded their upstream capacity in recent years.
In a separate but related development, eight major OPEC+ producers—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—held a virtual meeting on the same day. These countries, responsible for the bulk of the group’s voluntary production adjustments since 2023, confirmed their commitment to maintaining current output restraint.
Despite earlier plans to gradually increase production starting in late 2025, the eight nations decided to pause any upward adjustments, citing healthy but fragile market fundamentals, low global inventories, and risks of oversupply in 2026 from strong growth in U.S., Brazilian, and Guyanese output. They emphasized their readiness to adjust policy swiftly if market conditions deteriorate.
The group also reaffirmed their intention to fully compensate for all overproduced volumes recorded since January 2024. Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia—the primary sources of excess supply in recent years—submitted updated compensation plans extending into 2026. Monthly monitoring meetings will continue to ensure transparency and accountability.
For Nigeria, the decision to keep its quota unchanged at 1.5 million bpd offers both challenges and opportunities. The West African nation has struggled to meet even this level consistently due to pipeline vandalism, crude theft, and aging infrastructure. However, the quota freeze removes the pressure of mandatory increases and provides fiscal certainty as the government implements reforms under the Petroleum Industry Act. Nigerian officials expressed cautious optimism, noting that actual production (including condensates) often exceeds the official OPEC quota when measured comprehensively.
Market reaction has been muted, with Brent crude trading around $63–65 per barrel in the days following the announcement—reflecting investor expectations of continued oversupply into 2026. Analysts widely view the OPEC+ decision as a pragmatic effort to defend market share while preventing a sharp price collapse that could harm member economies.
The next full OPEC+ ministerial meeting is scheduled for June 2026, with the eight-nation monitoring group set to convene monthly in the interim. As the energy transition accelerates and non-OPEC supply continues to grow, the extended DoC framework underscores the coalition’s determination to remain a central force in global oil markets for years to come.
