Minsk, Belarus – On December 30, 2025, Russia's Ministry of Defence announced that its advanced nuclear-capable hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile system, known as Oreshnik, has entered active combat duty on Belarusian territory. The deployment, accompanied by the first public release of video footage showing mobile launchers and camouflaged operations, marks a significant escalation in regional tensions amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.
The Russian Defence Ministry released images and video depicting service members deploying the Oreshnik systems in forested areas, with crews applying netting for concealment. A senior officer informed troops that the unit had officially begun combat duty tasks, including routine training and reconnaissance patrols. The ministry did not specify the number of missiles deployed or precise locations, maintaining operational secrecy.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, had previously confirmed the system's arrival, stating in mid-December that the missiles were entering service and that up to a dozen could be stationed in the country. Control of the weapons remains with Moscow, though Putin has indicated that Belarus could select targets in certain scenarios.
Independent analysis of commercial satellite imagery suggests the missiles are likely based at a former airbase near the town of Krichev (also spelled Krychaw or Krichev) in eastern Belarus, approximately 307 kilometers (190 miles) east of Minsk and close to the Russian border. U.S. researchers Jeffrey Lewis from the Middlebury Institute and Decker Eveleth from CNA, analyzing Planet Labs photos, expressed 90% confidence in this assessment, noting new constructions consistent with Russian strategic missile facilities.
The Oreshnik, meaning "hazelnut tree" in Russian, is an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) with an estimated range of up to 5,500 kilometers (3,415 miles), capable of reaching targets across Europe from Belarusian launch sites. Russian officials claim it travels at speeds exceeding Mach 10, employs multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs), and follows unpredictable trajectories to evade defenses. Putin has described limited strikes with the weapon as potentially causing destruction comparable to a nuclear attack, even with conventional warheads.
The missile made its combat debut in November 2024, when a conventionally armed version struck a Ukrainian defense facility in Dnipro. Western experts have expressed skepticism about some Russian claims, with one U.S. official stating in late 2024 that the Oreshnik is not a battlefield game-changer.
Deployment in Belarus reduces flight times to European capitals significantly. Analysts note that launches from eastern Belarus could theoretically reach London in under 10 minutes, compared to longer trajectories from deeper Russian territory. This positions much of NATO's eastern flank— including Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia, which border Belarus—within rapid striking distance.
The move follows Putin's announcements throughout 2025 of mass production and year-end deployment plans, framed as a response to perceived Western escalation, including U.S. missile placements in Europe. It also builds on Russia's prior stationing of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus since 2023.
NATO allies have voiced alarm, viewing the deployment as heightening nuclear risks and complicating deterrence dynamics on the eastern front. Belarusian opposition figures, such as Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, criticized it as deepening Minsk's dependence on Moscow.
As fragile diplomatic efforts continue regarding Ukraine, this development underscores Russia's reliance on advanced weaponry for strategic signaling. Military observers anticipate increased NATO vigilance, potential adjustments to missile defenses, and further strain on arms control frameworks as the New START treaty nears expiration.
The Oreshnik's placement in Belarus represents the first Russian nuclear-capable strategic missile deployment outside its borders since the Cold War era, signaling a shift in posture amid protracted conflict.
