Nigeria lost approximately N1.76 trillion in potential crude oil revenue between January 2025 and January 2026 due to consistent failure to meet its OPEC-assigned production quota, according to data compiled from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) and cross-referenced with OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Reports.
The shortfall stems from Nigeria's inability to produce at or above its allocated quota throughout the 13-month period. OPEC assigned Nigeria an average monthly production quota of 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) during this timeframe, with minor adjustments in certain months. However, actual output averaged between 1.28 million and 1.35 million bpd, resulting in an average monthly shortfall of roughly 150,000 to 220,000 barrels.
At an average Brent crude price of $78 per barrel over the period (weighted across monthly averages), the cumulative revenue loss is estimated at N1.76 trillion (approximately $1.08 billion at the prevailing exchange rate during the period). This figure represents forgone export earnings that would have accrued to the federation account and supported the national budget.
Key factors contributing to Nigeria's persistent underproduction include:
- Pipeline vandalism and crude oil theft: Despite efforts to secure critical export infrastructure such as the Trans-Niger Pipeline (TNP) and Nembe Creek Trunk Line (NCTL), illegal bunkering and sabotage continued to disrupt flow stations and terminals.
- Aging and under-maintained infrastructure: Several onshore and shallow-water fields suffer from frequent breakdowns, while limited investment in upstream rehabilitation has constrained output.
- Delays in upstream project execution: New fields and tie-backs expected to add incremental production have faced delays due to funding constraints, regulatory bottlenecks, and community-related disputes.
- OPEC+ voluntary cuts: While Nigeria was exempted from some deeper voluntary production cuts agreed by OPEC+ members, the country's baseline challenges prevented it from even reaching its exempted quota levels.
The NUPRC, which regulates upstream activities, has repeatedly acknowledged the production gaps but maintained that output has shown gradual improvement, rising from an average of 1.28 million bpd in Q1 2025 to 1.34 million bpd in Q4 2025. However, this still fell short of the OPEC target in every reported month.
The revenue loss has significant implications for Nigeria's fiscal position. Oil and gas receipts remain the largest single contributor to the federation account, funding federal, state, and local government budgets. The shortfall has contributed to wider budget deficits, increased reliance on borrowing, and pressure on foreign exchange reserves.
Industry analysts note that the forfeited revenue could have financed critical infrastructure projects, including road rehabilitation, power generation, healthcare improvements, and security operations in the Niger Delta.
In response to the persistent shortfall, the federal government and NUPRC have intensified engagements with international oil companies (IOCs), indigenous operators, and security agencies. Measures include:
- Deployment of additional surveillance assets along key pipelines
- Renewed crackdowns on illegal refining sites
- Incentives for operators to accelerate production ramp-up
- Ongoing rehabilitation of key export terminals
Despite these efforts, Nigeria's production has remained below quota, raising concerns about the country's long-term competitiveness within OPEC and its ability to maximize revenue from its hydrocarbon resources.
OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais has previously acknowledged Nigeria's infrastructure and security challenges but urged the country to take decisive steps to restore output capacity. The cartel has maintained Nigeria's quota at 1.5 million bpd into 2026, signaling continued expectations for higher production.
As global oil markets remain volatile and demand dynamics shift toward energy transition, Nigeria's inability to consistently meet its OPEC quota continues to represent a major economic opportunity cost. Stakeholders have called for urgent, coordinated action to address the root causes of underproduction and safeguard the nation's oil revenue stream.
The NUPRC is expected to release detailed January 2026 production figures in the coming weeks, providing further insight into whether recent interventions have yielded sustainable gains.
