HAMILTON, Canada — The chief economist of the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has warned that the ongoing conflict affecting the Strait of Hormuz could continue to disrupt global commodity markets for months, even if hostilities were to end immediately.
Speaking during a virtual briefing on Thursday, FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero emphasized the strategic importance of the strait and the severity of the economic disruption caused by the crisis. “If the conflict stops today, it will take two to three months to stabilize this cost,” Torero said.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most vital maritime chokepoints, handling a significant portion of global energy and commodity shipments. Torero noted that “within days, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz collapsed to 90%, while the route normally carries 20 million barrels of oil per day. That’s 35% of the crude oil, along with one-fifth of the world’s LNG natural gas, and up to 30% of international fertilizer trade,” he said, underscoring the strait’s relevance not only for energy markets but also for global food security.
Torero outlined potential consequences based on the duration of the conflict. “If everything is resolved in the next two weeks or so, the markets will absorb, and that will minimize any potential risk of food insecurity in the world in the next planting season, or any potential risk of economic impacts,” he said.
However, he cautioned that prolonged disruption could have broader implications. “If this crisis continues for three to six months, then yes, it will have an impact, not only on the food security sector, but of course, energy will impact all other sectors and other inputs,” he added, highlighting the cascading effects of commodity supply disruptions on multiple industries.
Beyond global trade, Torero also drew attention to countries heavily reliant on remittances from Gulf workers, including Nepal, Jordan, Lebanon, Pakistan, Egypt, and Sri Lanka. “Workers in the region will lose their jobs and, of course, they won’t be able to submit their remittances,” he warned, noting that this could significantly affect the economies of nations where remittances constitute a substantial portion of GDP.
Countries such as Türkiye and Jordan are particularly vulnerable due to their crop calendars and reliance on imported food, while Lebanon faces compounding difficulties due to economic instability. Torero stressed the importance of swift resolution, saying, “Markets will absorb because we have enough food in the markets, if the conflict ends within the next week or two. But we have to be realistic; if this continues for a longer period of time, the situation will be significantly worrisome.”
Torero also highlighted the potential for climate-related disasters to compound the crisis. When asked about the impact of climate events, he specifically mentioned the risk posed by El Niño, a climate pattern that can produce unusually warm ocean temperatures and extreme weather worldwide. “If El Niño happens and is strong, then the combination of those factors, the climate effect, plus the increasing cost of inputs, will exacerbate significantly the situation,” he said.
The FAO’s warning comes as global energy and food markets continue to experience volatility due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Analysts have pointed out that even temporary disruptions to oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz can quickly ripple through international markets, affecting prices for fuel, fertilizer, and food products.
Torero concluded by urging the international community to prioritize a swift resolution to the conflict. “If the crisis is resolved quickly, markets can stabilize, and risks to global food security will be minimized. But delays will create serious consequences for economies, vulnerable populations, and the availability of essential commodities worldwide,” he said.
With the combined pressures of conflict, global energy dependencies, and climate-related risks, the FAO chief’s warning underscores the interconnected nature of modern food and energy systems, and the urgency of addressing disruptions in strategic trade routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.
