In a significant shift within Nigeria's energy landscape, the Dangote Group has officially declined a proposal from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited to expand its equity in the $20 billion Dangote Petroleum Refinery. The rejection marks a turning point in the relationship between the private industrial giant and the state-owned oil firm, coming at a time when the Lekki-based facility has effectively curtailed Nigeria's decades-long dependence on imported fuel.
Alhaji Aliko Dangote, President of the Dangote Group, disclosed the decision during a high-profile interview with Nicolai Tangen, the Chief Executive Officer of the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund. The billionaire industrialist clarified that while the NNPC had expressed interest in increasing its current 7.25 percent stake, the group opted to reserve future equity for the Nigerian public through an eventual Initial Public Offering (IPO).
The history of the NNPC’s investment in the refinery has been a subject of intense public debate. In 2021, the national oil company acquired a 7.25 percent stake for $1 billion, with an initial agreement to scale that ownership to 20 percent by June 2024. However, the NNPC ultimately reneged on the balance of the payment. The agreement was actually for 20 percent, Dangote recalled, reflecting on the 2024 disclosure that surprised many Nigerians who believed the state still held a fifth of the company. They did not pay the balance of the money up until last year; the group gave them an extension until June 2024, and they eventually decided to remain at the level they had already funded, which is 7.2 percent.
Despite this previous withdrawal, Dangote revealed that the NNPC recently attempted to move back toward a larger holding—an overture the Group firmly rebuffed. Dangote explained that the vision for the refinery involves broad-based ownership. We are the ones that said no; we want to now spread it and have everybody be part of it, he said, citing the plan to go public as a primary motivator for keeping the remaining shares available for private and institutional investors.
The refinery’s refusal to grant the NNPC more control comes as the facility proves its economic mettle. Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), analyzed by The PUNCH, shows that the refinery has fundamentally restructured the Nigerian fuel market in the first quarter of 2026. According to the reports, petrol supply from the Dangote refinery rose to a staggering 3.18 billion litres between January and March 2026. During the same period, fuel imports—which once constituted nearly 100 percent of national consumption—collapsed to just 965.52 million litres. This means domestic refining accounted for approximately 76.7 percent of the total national supply in Q1 2026, a sharp contrast to the previous year when imports still dominated the market.
Further analysis indicates that the average domestic ex-depot price for petrol from the refinery stood at approximately 1,000 Naira per litre during the review period. Consequently, the plant injected over 3.2 trillion Naira worth of petrol into the domestic market in just three months. While total petrol supply fell slightly by 6.2 percent year-on-year to 4.14 billion litres, the shift from foreign exchange-draining imports to locally refined products represents a massive win for Nigeria’s balance of trade.
During the interview, Dangote revealed that the refinery is currently operating at an impressive 661,000 barrels per day, slightly exceeding its 650,000 barrels per day nameplate capacity. This operational efficiency has allowed the group to capitalize on global market disruptions. The ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran has sent energy and commodity prices soaring globally, providing an unexpected windfall for the Dangote Group’s various arms. The effect of the war on our businesses is more beneficial than a downside, Dangote admitted. He noted that the price of urea fertilizer jumped from $400 to $850 per tonne, while polypropylene—a critical raw material for plastics—surged from $900 to nearly $3,000 per tonne in some markets.
If not for the polypropylene we are producing today, all the plastic industries in Nigeria would have shut down because there’s nowhere you can even get it, Dangote stated. He added that the refinery’s aviation fuel is currently oversold until mid-July, with the plant churning out 20 million litres of jet fuel daily. Despite the success, Dangote was candid about the risks and opposition his venture faces. He identified government policy inconsistency and civil unrest as the primary threats to his business empire. He also spoke pointedly about a Mafia of entrenched interests that benefited from Nigeria’s former fuel subsidy regime.
The Mafia are the people who were actually benefiting because Nigeria was giving out almost $10 billion every year as a subsidy, he said. There are shippers making tonnes of money, traders making money buying crude and sending us refined products. These are the people that did not want us to settle down because they believed we were coming to displace them—and of course, that is what we have done now. To mitigate the risk of policy shifts, Dangote noted that the Group is focused on export-oriented growth to ensure dollar-denominated revenue. He guaranteed that future investors in the refinery, cement, or fertilizer businesses would receive dividends in U.S. dollars, as 80 percent of the group’s revenue is projected to be in foreign currency.
Looking ahead, the Dangote Group has set a mountainous target: reaching $100 billion in annual revenue by 2030, with a projected market valuation of over $250 billion. To achieve this, the Group plans to invest an additional $45 billion into its businesses over the next few years. This expansion includes nearly doubling the refinery’s capacity. In the next 30 months, we will be at 1.4 million barrels per day, which is huge, Dangote revealed. The Group also aims to increase cement production to 100 million tonnes annually.
Funding for these massive projects has evolved. While Dangote initially intended to fund the refinery through internally generated revenue, the devaluation of the Naira forced the Group to lean on a consortium of local and international lenders, including Afreximbank, Africa Finance Corporation, Zenith Bank, Access Bank, UBA, and Standard Bank of South Africa. In a rare personal reflection, the billionaire shared how his commitment to the Nigerian industrial revolution required him to liquidate his personal holdings abroad. He revealed that he sold his big mansions in the United Kingdom and the United States to ensure he remained focused on his domestic projects.
I wanted to really sit in Nigeria and concentrate, he said. Now my life is very simple. Wherever I go, I use hotels. I’m committed to what I do. I always create a vision; it’s just like now, we created a vision for 2030. All my businesses are targeted. Despite the optimism surrounding the drop in imports, energy experts have urged a measured view of the statistics. Professor Wumi Iledare, a renowned energy economist, noted that while the Dangote refinery has drastically reduced Nigeria’s marginal reliance on foreign petrol, importation has not been entirely eliminated.
Recent claims that petrol importation into Nigeria has ended because Dangote Refinery now meets domestic demand reflect understandable optimism, but they overstate economic reality, Iledare cautioned. He emphasized that national supply outcomes are determined by a complex interplay of market forces, rather than a single facility. Nevertheless, the Q1 2026 data confirms that the tide has turned. With the refinery exporting 434 million litres of petrol in March alone after meeting domestic demand, Nigeria is transitioning from a vulnerable importer to a regional energy powerhouse. As the Dangote Group prepares to welcome public shareholders and expand its 661,000 barrels per day output, the era of subsidy mafias and chronic fuel queues appears to be receding into the pages of history.
