The International Monetary Fund has raised its forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth to 3.4 percent in 2025, marking an increase of 0.4 percentage points from its April 2025 projection of 3.0 percent.
The IMF also upgraded its outlook for Nigeria’s 2026 economic growth to 3.2 percent, representing a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous 2.7 percent forecast released in April.
These revisions were published in the July 2025 edition of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, which also included an upward review of global growth projections. The global economic growth forecast now stands at 3.0 percent for 2025 and 3.1 percent for 2026, up by 0.2 percentage points and 0.1 percentage points respectively from the April 2025 estimates.
The IMF likewise revised its economic growth projections for the Sub Saharan African region. Growth for the region is now expected to reach 4.0 percent in 2025 and 4.3 percent in 2026. These figures represent increases of 0.2 percentage points and 0.1 percentage points respectively from the earlier forecasts of 3.8 percent and 4.2 percent.
“Growth is expected to be relatively stable in 2025 in sub Saharan Africa at 4.0 percent, before picking up to 4.3 percent in 2026,” the IMF said.
Reacting to the updated forecast for Nigeria, Tunde Abidoye, Head of Equity Research at FBNQuest Merchant Bank, said, “The IMF’s forecast of 3.4% is precisely in line with our in-house view based on the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics, NBS data points.
“I believe the upward revision likely reflects improved oil production and the strong performance of services. That said, the range bound single digit growth rate forecast still portends cautious optimism, as the growth is still too modest to tackle the poverty problem."
