The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has raised its projection for global oil demand in 2026, forecasting an expansion of 1.4 million barrels per day (mb/d). The figure represents a 0.1 mb/d upward adjustment from its earlier forecast, reflecting stronger-than-expected economic performance across major economies.
The latest figures were released in OPEC’s August 2025 Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), which also confirmed that the outlook for 2025 remains unchanged at 1.3 mb/d growth.
According to the report, member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) are expected to contribute about 0.2 mb/d to global demand growth in 2026. Non-OECD nations, however, are set to drive the bulk of the increase with 1.2 mb/d, underlining the accelerating consumption trends in emerging markets.
On the supply side, OPEC noted that production of liquids from Non-Declaration of Cooperation (Non-DoC) countries will increase by around 0.8 mb/d in 2025, consistent with its earlier estimates. Growth will be led by the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina. For 2026, the outlook was revised marginally down by 0.1 mb/d to 0.6 mb/d, though the same countries are expected to remain the dominant contributors.
The report also stated that natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) member states are set to rise by 0.1 mb/d in both 2025 and 2026, lifting average output to 8.7 mb/d and 8.8 mb/d respectively. Crude oil production from DoC countries increased by 335,000 barrels per day in July 2025, reaching an average of 41.94 mb/d.
In the downstream sector, OPEC observed a strong recovery in refinery margins across the Atlantic basin, fuelled by tighter diesel supplies and reduced imports of fuel oil. Margins improved in both the U.S. Gulf Coast and Rotterdam, while Singapore saw a decline due to higher product exports from China.
The report concluded that global refinery intake climbed to an all-time high of 83.6 mb/d in July, an increase of 884,000 barrels per day compared with the previous month, and 2.0 mb/d higher than the same period last year, underscoring the strength of global refining activity.
